{"id":1389,"date":"2026-07-10T09:18:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T14:18:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/?page_id=1389"},"modified":"2026-07-10T09:29:38","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T14:29:38","slug":"male-fertility","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/male-fertility\/","title":{"rendered":"Male Fertility"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:2.5rem;line-height:1.15\">The Brewing Crisis in Broiler Breeder Fertility<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:600\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><br>Inside our lab\u2019s effort to map a slow\u2011moving fertility crisis, using multi\u2011omics, deep learning, and mathematical modeling to re\u2011engineer how we can keep male broiler breeders sustainable.<\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:1.75rem;line-height:1.2\">Breeder fertility is key to food security<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Each year in the U.S., around 12 billion hatching eggs are set to produce roughly 9 billion broiler chickens a quiet, continuous process that underpins affordable protein for millions. Yet behind that apparent stability, our analyses show a persistent erosion in the reproductive engine that makes it all possible: broiler breeder fertility. Using a decade of national production data, our group projected that hatchability could fall from about 75% today to near 60% by 2050 if current trends continue, with profound implications for food security and production costs. <a href=\"https:\/\/stories.tamu.edu\/news\/2025\/04\/16\/texas-am-study-predicts-long-term-drop-in-chicken-fertility-rates\/\">Texas A&#038;M AgriLife feature<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the Athrey Lab, we are treating this as a systems challenge that spans sperm cell morphology, flock management, genetic selection, and the physiology of aging males. Our work brings together multi\u2011omics, high\u2011throughput phenotyping, and computational modeling to understand how every missed fertilization event fits into a much larger biological and economic story. <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/40073637\/\">PubMed<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:1.75rem;line-height:1.2\">Why broiler breeder fertility matters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Broiler breeders are the parents of all commercial broilers; every chick starts as a breeder egg. <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/40073637\/\">PubMed<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hatchability is the share of fertile eggs that result in live chicks; small percentage changes translate into millions of birds gained or lost. <a href=\"https:\/\/stories.tamu.edu\/news\/2025\/04\/16\/texas-am-study-predicts-long-term-drop-in-chicken-fertility-rates\/\">Texas A&#038;M AgriLife feature<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Our Broiler Breeder Performance Index (BBPI) integrates hatchability, chick livability, and efficiency to track the long\u2011term health of this system. <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/40073637\/\">PubMed<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"has-kubio-color-6-color has-kubio-color-5-variant-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-d693a588eaa8ce89c3d6b96f438c4e72 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:600\">\u201cFertility is the bedrock of modern broiler production,\u201d as we wrote in our Poultry Science analysis; once that foundation shifts, everything built on it must adapt.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:1.75rem;line-height:1.2\">Reading the warning signs in national data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In our paper \u201cHow concerned should we be about broiler breeder fertility declines?\u201d, Cash, Witherspoon, and Athrey use USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service data from 2013\u20132022 to quantify a trend the industry had long suspected. Our Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling revealed steady declines in hatchability, chick livability, and production efficiency over that period, even as the number of eggs set and broilers raised climbed to meet rising demand. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.semanticscholar.org\/paper\/7f4799e626a26c438bb9dc28f30905e5c4d92579\">our published analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To translate these trajectories into a single, interpretable metric, we developed the Broiler Breeder Performance Index (BBPI), testing both Gaussian and Cauchy\u2011based models to evaluate predictive performance under uncertainty. BBPI projections dipping below baseline levels signal that the system is moving away from its historical \u201ccomfort zone,\u201d reinforcing the need for targeted interventions in flock management, nutrition, and selection. <a href=\"https:\/\/pennsylvaniaagconnection.com\/news\/chicken-hatchability-rates-could-drop-by-2050-1\">industry coverage<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:1.75rem;line-height:1.2\">From data curves to living cells \u2013 phenotyping sperm over time<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">National\u2011scale forecasts tell us <strong>that<\/strong> fertility is changing; our phenotyping work asks <strong>why<\/strong>. In his M.S. thesis, \u201cIdentifying Spermatozoa Features for Fertility Scoring of Broiler Breeders,\u201d Kolton Witherspoon combined detailed morphological analyses of chicken sperm with advanced analytical methods to pinpoint cell\u2011level traits linked to fertility outcomes in individual males. These efforts move the field from subjective impressions of \u201cgood\u201d semen quality to objective, data\u2011driven scoring systems that can guide breeder selection and monitoring. <a href=\"https:\/\/stories.tamu.edu\/news\/2025\/04\/16\/texas-am-study-predicts-long-term-drop-in-chicken-fertility-rates\/\">Texas A&#038;M AgriLife feature<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Building on this, our team has begun tracking sperm morphological features not just as single snapshots, but across time within the same males. By following how traits shift across the reproductive lifespan of a rooster, Triumph Okuku\u2019s work uses temporal sperm morphology profiles to estimate peak reproductive performance windows, providing a new way to schedule use, spiking decisions, and replacement strategies. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0032579126001318\">the paper<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:1.75rem;line-height:1.2\">Deep learning and AI \u2013 letting the data speak<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Classical statistics struggle when hundreds of correlated traits, images, and time points collide; this is where our deep learning work steps in. At the Poultry Science Association 2025 meeting, Witherspoon presented our application of deep learning models to dissect which combinations of sperm traits, management variables, and temporal patterns best predict real\u2011world fertility outcomes in broiler breeders. These models learn subtle, non\u2011linear relationships that are hard to detect with conventional approaches, turning years of field and lab data into actionable predictions about male performance. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0032579125002317\">the paper<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The same computational mindset extends across the lab, where simulation modeling, AI\u2011assisted image analysis, and predictive indices help us test \u201cwhat\u2011if\u201d scenarios long before a hatchery implements them. Whether forecasting the impact of changing male\u2011to\u2011female ratios or evaluating new scoring schemes, our goal is to provide decision tools that are both biologically grounded and operationally realistic. <a href=\"https:\/\/pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/articles\/PMC12455124\/\">open-access article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:1.75rem;line-height:1.2\">Multi\u2011omics \u2013 connecting genes, physiology, and performance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fertility is not just about what we see under the microscope; it is rooted in genomic architecture, regulatory networks, and metabolism. Across the lab, we apply whole\u2011genome sequencing, transcriptomics, and metabolomics to dissect complex traits in birds, and these same multi\u2011omics strategies are being deployed to understand male broiler breeder fertility. By integrating omics layers with phenotypes such as sperm morphology, testis condition, and age\u2011related changes, we aim to identify biomarkers that can be used in selection schemes or early\u2011warning diagnostics. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0032579125002317\">the paper<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This comparative omics perspective sits within a broader research program that spans gut\u2013brain\u2013immune signaling in chickens, mosquito vector biology, and insects as vectors of antimicrobial resistance, giving us a unique vantage point on how networks of genes, microbes, and environments shape animal performance. Lessons from other systems\u2014such as how stress pathways alter gut\u2013brain communication in chickens or feeding behavior in malaria vectors\u2014inform our thinking about how environment and management might intersect with male fertility. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0032579125002317\">the paper<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:1.75rem;line-height:1.2\">Building a team around a grand challenge<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Solving a problem of this scale requires people who are fluent in both biology and data. When Cara Cash joined the lab in 2023, she brought a background in poultry science and a growing interest in data science and smart agriculture, sharpened during a summer program at NC State. Her work on simulation modeling and analytical approaches to broiler breeder fertility and hatchability helped crystallize the need for rigorous, systems\u2011level thinking about this problem. <a href=\"https:\/\/pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/articles\/PMC12455124\/\">open-access article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, our broiler breeder fertility efforts weave together graduate projects on statistical forecasting, deep learning, and temporal phenotyping, alongside industry\u2011facing talks and interviews that help translate findings back to stakeholders. From invited conferences and breeder roundtables to coverage in industry magazines, we are building not just datasets and models, but a shared language for talking about fertility risk, resilience, and innovation in the broiler breeder sector. <a href=\"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/wp-admin\/post.php?post=1389&amp;action=edit\">our research program<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-kubio-color-6-color has-kubio-color-5-variant-2-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-e299e913917a4667930e4cab79480eb8 is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:700\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cOur goal is to treat every data point from every modality, from molecules to the flock level, as a signal in a larger system that we can measure, model, and ultimately change.\u201d<\/p>\n<cite>G. Athrey<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As demand for poultry meat continues to rise, the industry faces a choice: react to declining fertility with incremental adjustments, or invest in a new generation of tools that make male reproductive performance visible, quantifiable, and improvable. Our lab is committed to the latter\u2014combining multi\u2011omics, high\u2011resolution phenotyping, AI, and mathematical modeling to rebuild broiler breeder fertility on a more resilient foundation. <a href=\"https:\/\/stories.tamu.edu\/news\/2025\/04\/16\/texas-am-study-predicts-long-term-drop-in-chicken-fertility-rates\/\">Texas A&#038;M AgriLife feature<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Brewing Crisis in Broiler Breeder Fertility Inside our lab\u2019s effort to map a slow\u2011moving fertility crisis, using multi\u2011omics, deep learning, and mathematical modeling to re\u2011engineer how we can keep male broiler breeders sustainable. Breeder fertility is key to food security Each year in the U.S., around 12 billion hatching eggs are set to produce [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1406,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1389","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1389","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1389"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1389\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1409,"href":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1389\/revisions\/1409"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/giriathrey.com\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}